Today sees the release of World of Warcraft patch 10.2.6 and Plunderstorm, Blizzard's new battle royale PvP experiment. Based on my interviews with Blizzard representatives and WoW's past update cycles, I found out when the MMO's next expansion is expected to release.
More specifically it says: The War Within expansion will be released sometime in Augustmaybe around August 20th.
I have a good track record of predicting release dates for patches and expansions, having covered the game for over 20 years at this point, predicting the last few on the nose and crushing the outcome original release date for WoW as part of an interview with a then vice president of Vivendi.
But don't take my word for it. Here's a detailed look at why an August 20 launch date could be true.
Calculate
In my interview with Blizzard representatives for this patch, we discussed elements of the schedule. The new patch will last six weeks, Season 4 will be available on the Public Test Realm later this week, and the next season will begin “a few weeks later.”
“In the first half you'll see the Plunderstorm event and in the second half you'll see Season 4,” a Blizzard representative told 10.2.6. Assuming Blizzard uses its standard definition of “a few” to mean three – supported by the use of “half” – that means Season 4 begins on April 9th.
Cutting Edge: Fyrakk Update
Blizzard has confirmed to me that the Cutting Edge achievement in the Amirdrassil raid will end as usual at the start of Season 4, although the nifty Fire Owl mount can be obtained by killing the final boss Fyrakk on Mythic difficulty later in the season Expansion is guaranteed to be preserved.
The new season will essentially open a victory lap for Dragonflight's dungeons and raids: all eight of Dragonflight's original dungeons and raids will return on Mythic Plus difficulty, and all three of the expansion's raids (Vault of the Incarnates, Aberrus, and Amirdrassil) will return to rotation in a system very similar to Shadowlands' Fated raid system.
Blizzard isn't commenting on the details yet, but game director Ion Hazzikostas told me in an email Interview at BlizzCon last fall that it would be very similar to the Shadowlands Fated system, minus the punishing affixes – new mechanics that players had to go through again, which they didn't enjoy as much. Blizzard had learned from this experience, he said at the time.
The new raid rotation “Fated” (it will have a new name) will overlap with 10.2.6 and 10.2.7, representatives said. Patch 10.2.7 will be the epilogue to the Dragonflight story and the beginning of story preparation for The War Within.
In Shadowlands, the Fate raids for the three raids ran in four rotations of one week each, for a total of 12 weeks before the big Dragonflight pre-patch began. When the Dragonflight pre-patch launched, all raids were available at all times. So if a similar rhythm occurred here, you would have something like this:
- Week of March 19th: 10.2.6 (today) and Season 4 PTR launch later this week (confirmed)
- 9th April: Season 4 begins (speculated) with “Vault of the Incarnates” as a “Fate” raid
- April 16: Aberrus, the Shadow Crucible is “Fated”
- April 23rd: Amirdrassil, the hope of the dream is “determined by fate”
- April, 30th: 10.2.7 begins (confirmed), Season 4 continues (confirmed) and begins to repeat
The vacation problem
The schedule would repeat until the 11.0 pre-patch launch event for The War Within. If the same schedule as the lead-up to Dragonflight applied, the 11.0 patch would be on July 2nd.
Now, this date is a bit problematic. The pre-patch release is absolutely massive, an all-hands-on-deck experience for Blizzard as it includes all of the new systems, abilities and balance that will become part of The War Within's core gameplay. There are often new stories and events of their own. Basically it's the start of the new expansion, minus the new zones and story.
Traditionally, Blizzard has been very cautious about releasing such patches during a holiday week, and July 4th in the US is a popular holiday week. If I were to bet, I'd say Blizzard would take steps to avoid this week as a pre-patch release date.
If that's the case, the company would have several options: launch Season 4 a week later; Do not complete one of the rotations (unlikely). Remove one of the twists completely or add one. or decouple the “All raids are fateful” week from the pre-patch launch.
Based on previous experience, I think they will probably choose either the first or the last option, which is to start Season 4 on April 16th or “All Raids are Fate” on July 2nd and 11.0 a week later on July 9th, start, which would have been the case, the same result.
I think there are several reasons for this: First, these decisions require the least amount of customization internally. Second, representatives said in the interview that the “fateful” rotation this time would be “the raid rotation that people are used to” – which admittedly could just mean the weekly rotation of 1-2-3, but could also mean that Number could mean the total number of rotations.
Finally, based on previous interviews and conversations, the company would really prefer a six-week duration for its pre-expansion patches, if possible. This would mean that under both options, The War Within's launch would be set for August 20th. August 15th has historically been a popular internal launch date for Warcraft expansions, although Blizzard has often significantly exceeded these internal deadlines.
Lately, however, they have been sticking to their schedules in a remarkable way. And last fall, Blizzard executives corrected me when I noted that people had predicted a “fall” release for The War Within, and that fall began on September 22nd of that year. I was dismissively told that it wouldn't be that late – so an August launch seems likely.
Given that some pre-sale versions of the game will grant players three days of early access to The War Within, which would result in players jumping into the new expansion on Saturday, August 17th, which is pretty darn close to their eternal goal of August 15th.
Is August 20th the correct prediction? We will see. Finally, launching a new season like Season 4 three weeks after a patch release date or coupled with a normally tiny .6 patch is somewhat unusual behavior, and has caused me to have to rework many of my normal internal schedules. But if it isn't this Tuesday, it's very likely we're close to it unless Blizzard takes steps to change the game… again.
