The GPU market looks healthy, with GPU shipments increasing 5.9% in Q4 2023 and a dramatic 20% increase year-over-year. Accordingly Jon Peddie ResearchThis growth was driven by an increase in notebook CPU demand, which rose 24% year-over-year. This is the largest increase in 25 years.
According to the study, global GPU shipments reached 76.2 million units. The reported 20% increase is largely due to the staggering 24% growth in CPU shipments, particularly CPU shipments used in notebooks. Notebook GPU shipments increased 32%, while desktop GPU shipments actually fell 1% over the same period.
Why the big spike in notebook GPU shipments? That's easy to answer. Both AMD and Intel (and almost every other tech company) have brought AI capabilities to the forefront, and that is sure to spark a wave of upgrades. Some of these AI notebooks will have separate GPUs. It's important to remember that it will take months for many of these shipments to reach shelves. And when the inevitable AI PC promotion begins in earnest, consumers will be lining up to upgrade. I need my AI.
Both AMD and Intel have introduced chips with dedicated AI processing hardware, and this trend will continue to grow. I'm almost certain that most of this increase in CPU shipments will come from Intel's Core Ultra Meteor Lake family and, to a lesser extent, AMD's Ryzen 8000 series Hawk Point CPUs. They are all about NPUs or neural processing units.
However, there is reason for caution in 2024. On the subject of AI, Dr. Jon Peddie: “It's coming, and the early examples from Adobe, Microsoft and the CAD providers are good examples. But it probably won’t come into general everyday use until the end of the year at the earliest.” Therefore, we advise caution regarding optimism and enthusiasm.”
Back to the GPU side: There were no major changes in market share. AMD and Nvidia lost 1.4% and 1.36%, respectively. This loss was Intel's gain and was up +2.8%. Such numbers are not far outside the margin of error.
However, there were major differences in GPU shipments. AMD and Nvidia shipments fell 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while Intel shipments rose 10.5%. This points to many upcoming AI notebooks with integrated Intel graphics.
Add-in board makers had a rougher year, with shipments down 1% year over year, offset by a 6.8% increase in the fourth quarter of 2023. That is interesting! Perhaps high-volume discrete cards like the RTX 4060 and RX 7600 haven't done enough to appeal to up-and-comers. Six months of slowly declining prices have certainly prompted more than a few players to take the plunge and finally upgrade.
With AI on everyone's lips and the software that uses it slowly coming online, it looks like the PC market will continue its upward trend after the post-pandemic lull. It will be an interesting year ahead of us.
